AUTHOR(S): Markle A & Donnenfeld M
ABSTRACT: This report seeks to examine whether or not Africa is currently on track to achieving universal access to water, sanitation and hygiene by 2030 (Sustainable Development Goal 6). Using the International Futures forecasting system, it examines the continent's current trajectory and projects that a 'Universal Access' path to SDG6 will not be achievable if current rates access growth to water and sanitation continue. In this scenario, water access grows at an annual rate of 2 percentage points and sanitation access grows at a rate of 3.7 percentage points, growth which will entail infrastructure investments that go beyond what is currently planned - a cumulative increase in infrastructure spending of over USD $122 billion. The countries that will most benefit from universal access to WASH (i.e. the ones with the lowest access levels) will also absorb the vast majority of resources.
An alternative scenario is also proposed: the Balancing WASH scenario models a future in which resources for WASH are not sufficient for countries to reach universal access by 2030. Access therefore grows at a lower rate (1.1 percentage points p.a. for water and 1.6 for sanitation) and emphasises priority spending. SDG targets 6.1 and 6.2 will not be achieved but countries will see a significant improvement in WASH-related human development outcomes.